Contempo Magazine Blog

Many authorities are now predicting what we have said, that oil will in the next two years be over $150 per barrel ( some even predict $200) and that gasoline will reach $5 per gallon within the next year or so. How will this affect the average commuter in the Rio Grande Valley?

According to payscale.com research the average Texas commuter takes 20 to thirty minutes to get to work each day. In 2004 the Texas A&M research center reported that 95.4 percent of workers use a car to get to work. The vast majority of workers drive alone to work. TAMU found that 60 percent of workers commuted less than 24 minutes to work. Various studies by the U.S. Department of Transportation and others would indicate that these workers are averaging about 12 to17 miles in commuting distance from their home to their work place.

In the Rio Grande Valley it is estimated that the most common vehicles purchased in the past few years have been pickups and SUV’s for which we can estimate a miles per gallon rating of no more than 12 MPG. It works out that the average Valley resident will be spending about $70 per week or $280 per month in gasoline just to go work. Many who have office type jobs will be able to accomplish some if not all of their work from home. Large companies like banks will likely begin to have many workers actually working from home via the internet.

This will cause permanent changes in how we live. Living far from our place of work will become financial burdensome if not impossible for modest income earners. Pickups and SUV’s as we know them will disappear from the roads in a very short time. There has to be a plan for mass transportation that is convenient and available in at least the must urban areas like McAllen, Harlingen, and Brownsville. Like Europeans, we will become more focused in living in the immediate five miles near our home. Retail buying will decrease and internet buying will increase. Shoppers  will consolidate trips and even though overall buying may be less, it is likely that someone who spends the money on gas to shop will do so with an intent to buy rather than just browse. There will be more retail competition inside neighborhoods instead of across various neighborhoods. People will not drive long distances to shop at discount sales unless it is for a high priced item significantly discounted. Very likely, downtown urban centers such as is under discussion in McAllen, may be coincidently helped in development as people seek to live and work in the same areas where they can walk instead of drive.

There was a headline today across many newspapers in America that said “Lack of Cash Straps Democratic Party” coming from article by Cillizza and Mosk of the Washington Post. It lamented the fact that the Democratic National Committee had collected “only” 22.8 million dollars (they have spent 18.4 million leaving only 4.4 million) while the Republican National Committee had collected 57.6 million dollars ( they have spent 17 million with 40.6 million remaining). They mentioned that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have raised “record sums” but nowhere mentioned specific figures.

The article contends that the DNC attributes a “shortfall” as being due to (1) the protracted long fight between Obama and Clinton (2) Chairman Howard Dean’s Fifty State Strategy in the primaries and (3) aggressive direct donation seeking of House and Senate Democrats who are trying to increase their majority. The article did note that currently House and Senate Democrats have “huge cash advantages” over their Republican counterparts.

Just how poor are the Democrats? According to opensecrets.org the Obama campaign has raised over $265 million dollars (spent $218 million) and Clinton has risen over $214 million dollars (spent $185 million). Obama has almost $50 million cash on hand and is raising over $30 million dollars a month.

Meanwhile McCain has raised about $97 million (spent $72 million). McCain has $26 million on hand is raising about $18 million dollars a month.

If we look at 527’s, the top organization giving and receiving money in 2008 is the Service Employee International Union at $14 million dollars. It is interesting to note that total expenditures for all the 527’s combined have come way down under a $100 million dollars compared to almost $700 million in 2004.

Looking at PAC’s we see that the top contributors are mostly unions with the most being given by the Operating Engineer Union at about $2 million dollars.

The reality here is that the presumed nominee of the Democratic Party, Barack Obama, will likely have the most money available to any candidate for President in history as well his Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate. There has been a fundamental change in American politics in part brought on by internet fund raising and in part by the fact that the American people are interested in candidates not parties.

In both parties we are seeing candidates are not in the mainstream of their party. The candidates have run and organized their own campaigns sometimes in spite of their respective parties. The days of the smoke filled rooms where long time party bosses decided who gets the nomination based upon a history of party loyalty are giving way to a more populist approach.

Texas is a good example of the decline of strict party loyalties as well. It is not unusual to see state Democrats and Republicans working together and solving issues rather then strutting about squawking.

The Republican Party and self-labeled conservatives need to pay close attention to what is happening in this election. Labels and vague references to political ideals that do not match everyday reality have cost the Republican Party dearly. Unfortunately to this writer, John McCain in his mistake to seek approval from the party’s right-wing has strayed away from his traditional maverick political wisdom, and needs to get back on track. He should be backing S.22 providing for historic Veteran’s benefits. McCain can only win this election if he returns to his maverick ways.

It is a pity to see such a fine newspaper as the Washington Post miss the point about such an important change in American politics. What was the purpose of their article? Is the liberal biased media still worried that Obama will not have enough money or is that they are fearful that he may not be another party hack? It will not be the DNC vs. the RNC in this election year but will be perhaps for the first time, be an election between two candidates as individuals not as party representatives. The candidate who wins this election may well be the one that shows he can stand up the best to his own party.

Currently there are two competing proposals for the improvement of Veteran’s educational benefits before Congress. A review of these two proposals can be found on our Community Page of Contempo Magazine. The Webb plan or S.22 
is now competing with the McCain plan.
For too long, America has done too little for the Veteran’s who have given so much for their country.  The old Montgomery GI Bill in the form that was present after Vietnam was very flawed and demands change.  Both the Webb and McCain plans discuss issues that are very relevant.  There is bipartisan support that a change is needed and it appears that a substantial improvement should happen.  Congress needs to act on this issue now.