Retirees Supporting McCain 2:1 Even in Florida
Today the Gallup Daily Poll showed John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama at 48% to 45%. Other polls are showing McCain being the first candidate to reach the 50th percentile since the election began and even one poll showing him 8 points ahead at 54%. Of course there is still almost 2 months left and the debates have yet to occur.
It is interesting that both the Republican and Democratic candidates are spending time in the Midwest and not so much time in the potential swing state with the most votes, Florida. A recent report by the Center for Responsive Politics may reveal the reason. On September 3, Massie Ritsch reported that McCain in the months of June and July before the Republican convention and the naming of Sarah Palin, as running mate, was outdoing Obama by a 2 to 1 margin from retired voters. This was a significant change compared to earlier in the campaign where Obama had the lead. In June and July, McCain collected 64 percent of retirees’ contributions disclosed to the FEC.
Employees of one Florida retirement community, The Villages, even rank among McCain’s top donors since June. The fact that McCain is doing so well in an elderly retirement community that is normally a Democratic stronghold may indicate that the Democratic chances for winning Florida are really in doubt. This was occurring before Obama passed over Senator Hillary Clinton for Vice-President which is likely to have even further weakened him in Florida. Although Obama claimed he did not participate in the controversial Florida democratic primary, media ads promoting his campaign were run prior to the election despite this Hillary Clinton won in a landslide in large part due to elderly voters.
Voters over the age of 65 make up 17% of the population in Florida but have turn outs of more than 70% in elections. Nationwide they are closer to 15% of the population but consistently turn out more than any other group. A survey of elderly voters in traditional swing areas of Florida done before the Democratic primary showed their major concerns were the war on terror, health care, and then the economy.