National Hispanic Professional Organization Poll Shows Hispanics Split McCain Vs. Obama
A survey done, September 1 to September 8 of 2008, of 874 members from across the country showed that Barack Obama would have 45.4% and John McCain would have 44.9% of the vote. This was despite the fact that over 55% of the members considered themselves Democrats.
NHPO National Chairman of the Board, Ben Mendez, said, “It is estimated that 12 million Latino voters will participate in this election, which will make up approximately 9% of the total vote. Therefore, we felt it was important to survey our membership in this historical election. Our members sent a clear message that no one can take their vote for granted and that the economy is the most important issue facing them today.”
The survey asked the following eight questions:
1.If the election were held today, who would you vote for President of the United States? Barack Obama 45.4%; John McCain 44.9%; others 4.8%; none of the above 4.9%
2.Have you voted in any of the past two presidential elections? Yes 89.7%; No 10.3%
3.What is your party affiliation? Democrat 55.9%; Republican 24.5%; Independent 14%; other 5.6%
4.What issue is most important to you today? Economy 60.4%; Education 7.7%; Health Care 10.1%; Immigration 7.9%; National Security 8.4%; War in Iraq 5.6%
5.What is your gender? Female 52.6%; Male 47.4%
6.What is your age? 18 to 25 – 3.2%; 26 to 35 – 28.8%; 36 to 45 – 28.7%; 46 to 55 – 27.2%; 56+ 12.0%
7.What is your household income? $0 to 50K – 18.3%; $50 to 100K – 47.5%; $100 to 150K – 20.5%; $150 and above – 13.7%
8.What is the highest degree you have attained? No college 19.5%; Associate 15.6%; Bachelor 40%; Masters 20%; Ph.D. 4.9%
“Historically the Latino vote has often been taken for granted, however, this presidential election I predict you will see more crossover votes than ever before,” said NHPO National President, J.R. Gonzales. “Hispanics have been significant players in the national political landscape. This November, Hispanics will be the deciding factor in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida – four of the battleground states.”
In reviewing the NHPO Survey, Hector Carreño, Chairman of the Carreño Group stated, “Even after both Party conventions and after the 18 plus months of political advertising that we have all endured, I find that Latinos are fully engaged in this election, which is too close to call. The poll revealed that 23.5% of Latino Democrats are voting for McCain, that 49.6% of Latinos aged 25 to 36 are voting for Obama, and that 12% of Latinas still undecided.”
The demographics of the survey indicate that about 50% of the group was over 30 years of age and 81% had at least four years of college education. This recent survey puts into question the findings of the Pew Hispanic poll done in July which suggested the Hispanics were backing Obama 70% versus McCain at 30%. The mistreatment of Senator Hillary Clinton by the Obama campaign and the long history of John McCain with Hispanics is likely in this writer’s opinion to be helping the Republicans in this election.
Democratic pollsters in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas which is the most Hispanic area of the country with 89% of the population being Hispanic are conceding that McCain will likely carry the area.