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Mexican Soldiers Fighting in Michoacan Mexico

Last night there was an intense debate between John McCain and Barack Obama about foreign policy but there was one subject noticeably absent which is of grave concern to the United States and those of us that live along the Texas Mexican border.  One of the most pressing issues for the United States in foreign policy and domestic security will be what to do about Mexico’s potentially increasing instability both economically and in security.

Earlier this year it was reported separately by J. Jesus Esquivel of the Mexican publication, Proceso and also published by the National Drug Information Center that Mexican drug cartels are increasing doing business with Middle Eastern terrorist organizations. As illicit sources of guns have dried up, the Mexican cartels have embarked over the past five years on a financially rewarding trade system of guns for drugs. Arab terrorist organizations sell the drugs in Europe and the Middle East whilst paying for them with the best weapons available from Hamas, the Taliban, and maybe even Iranian sources.

Islamic fundamentalists are sending missionaries into the poverty stricken areas of South and Central America recruiting desperate peasant families as allies for drug operations. Anti-American sentiment by growing leftist movements is making it harder for the poor to cooperate with local authorities attempts at fighting the drug trade. Traditionally, Mexican authorities have been negative to much influence or intervention by the American government into their drug problems. This year, the Merida Initiative was passed which could ultimately bring $1.4 billion in military equipment and training for Mexico’s drug interdiction forces over three years, including eight Bell 412 helicopters, two CASA CN-245-300 surveillance planes, eighty-seven ion scanners used for drug detection, night vision gear, and sophisticated electronic inspection equipment. It would also fund software to facilitate cross-border intelligence sharing, forensics systems for identifying smuggled firearms, immigration document verification systems, and human rights and anti-corruption training for Mexican police.

However, already there are complaints that the Mexicans are not using the aid correctly.Because of severe police corruption the Mexican government has used the military to openly battle the drug cartels in the border cities and their strongholds. Cries of human rights abuses from many individuals and organizations have marred the bloody effort. Soon the death toll in the drug war may reach 10,000 killed. Many in the United States government are worried that in despite the best of intentions, what may be left is still a vibrant drug trade without much progress.

In the midst of the worldwide financial crisis, Maricio Cardenas who is the Director of the Latin American Initiative for the Heritage Foundation has stated that Mexico’s prospects for economic improvement are not favorable.  So far no progress has been made in their petroleum production making them an increasing importer of oil, failing agricultural production making them an importer of corn, or even in their public safety is diminishing day by day.

The Mexican government and the population of Mexico seem at times unaware of how dangerous the situation is rapidly becoming.  Earlier this year the main legislative body of Mexico, their “Congress”, was actually taken over by subversives for several days.  Many in Mexico claim that Felipe Calderon was not elected President and that Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Mayor of Mexico City, from the Party of Democratic Revolution is really the President. This organization is increasing friendly to Hugo Chavez and may be sympathetic to other destabilizing interests. Some in the Bush Administration have said quietly that it  is urgent that control of the drug trade be accomplished while Felipe Calderon is still President because it is likely that the next President of Mexico may well be much less favorable to American interests as was suggested in a Mother Jones article about the drug war.

Who ever wins the Presidential election in November will likely face turmoil and possible threats on our border and in our hemisphere which are unparalleled. As this is being written Russian bombers and Russian naval vessels capable of carrying nuclear weapons are landing in Venezuela. Wasting 40 billion dollars to build a border fence will do nothing to stop the drug trade or even graver threats. In fact, it seems to have lolled many into a false sense of security that something has been done.  America’s relations with her southern neighbor have always been difficult when dealing with law enforcement and security.

Pancho Villa is still revered as a hero for his intrusions into the United States while America’s response by invasion into Mexico is seen as criminal by many Mexicans. Obama has mistakenly said he not going to worry about little countries and his foreign policy will likely only weaken our best ally in the region, the Columbian government. As we previously reported many prominent Hispanic leaders such as the former Mayor of Miami have been critical of his lack of a Latin American plan.

McCain has visited South America and made a major policy statement in 2007 to the Florida Association of Broadcasters about Latin America. Instead of abandoning trade, he promoted that the democracies of Latin America should be supported by trade agreements and that rigorous diplomacy should be undertaken to curb the influence of Hugo Chavez and the drug cartels.  The next President may have to face critical decisions of diplomacy and/or intervention in our own hemisphere.

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Tonight I participated in a radio talk show about the debate. Perhaps the most telling caller was an Asian immigrant middle-aged woman voting in her first election. She had been for Hillary Clinton early on in the election but after the debate tonight she has decided to vote for John McCain. She said the single most important issue to her was honor. Why she said did Barack Obama seem not to love this country?  To her his attitude on the debate tonight was not of someone who carried for what happened to the average American but rather just for himself.  She said we have to be for “America First”.  She does not want Obama’s ideas of being a compliant world citizen who wants to be nice to countries like China and Russia.  This woman said she came here to find a better life and seek a place with high ideals.  Listening to Obama she felt she was back in an Asian country listening to the frequent lies of her previous life. How could Obama not care about the money the government is wasting she wondered?

After listening to this woman, I thought about the debate again and what it means to be a American. In this age of media and spin its hard to believe that an elderly man who often cannot speak well but yet has given his all for a country he loves can have a chance against just about every major media outlet who is supporting a “rock star” celebrity candidate.  He has been outspent 5 to 1 and called dishonorable, out of date, and stupid by movie stars, newspaper editors, reporters, and pundits. They accused him of running away from a debate and being afraid of Obama.  Did they forget that he spent years in the Hanoi Hilton not because he was a coward but because he loved his country.

At least for today, the message is clear. Character still counts in America.

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As the election goes into its final few weeks many media pundits like Ruben Navarrette Jr. from CNN report that Hispanics have all fallen into line for Senator Barack Obama as President and have gotten over their anger of the Hillary Clinton debacle.  Liberal media think tanks and mainstream media report that Hispanics are nationwide supporting Obama by margins as high as 70%. Obama campaign ads now gladly run on Spanish media linking John McCain with Rush Limbaugh in his attitudes about Hispanics, seeming to forget that just a year ago Obama was praising John McCain for putting together the failed comprehensive reform package with Senator Ted Kennedy.

As I have said before and so have several Hispanic organizations that are fairly liberal such as La Raza Unida, we do not fit into one box.  Within the Hispanic community there can be considerable friction between recent immigrant groups and native born Hispanics. Many seem to forget that it was not too long ago the labor leader, Caesar Chavez, fought hard to stop illegal immigration so that his organized labor efforts for legal Mexican American farm workers would not be undercut by illegal scabs.  What separates Hispanics from any other traditional immigrant group is that other groups came in a single wave or two en mass and then stopped whilst Hispanics have new waves every generation.  There are Hispanics who can trace their families presence within United States territory before Texas and California became part of American soil.  Many Americans do not seem to know that more Hispanics are now born in the United States than immigrate to the United States.

Although it is true that a majority of Hispanics oppose the war in Iraq,  Hispanics continue to serve in the United States military more than any other ethnic group. Hispanics in vast numbers are becoming evangelical Christians.  At least in the Southwest this two factors often lead to middle aged Hispanics who most often characterize themselves as  conservative democrats. Just look at the voting records of the typical Hispanic congressman from any of the border states where there is a majority or at least high percentage of Hispanics in their district. They never talk about abortion rights or sex education in the schools.  Although they often champion working class measures to promote higher wages and employment they can break from the Democratic party line on issues of free trade, defense spending, and energy.  Probably most voters who support Obama have confidence that the Democratic party will continue the status quo under Obama in respecting their ideas and hopefully improving the economy for their benefit.

The question remains what will an Obama Presidency mean to the different Hispanic groups?

Senator Barack Obama voted for the border fence as did Senator John McCain.  Although Obama did not support the SAVE Act completely, he has on several occasions since 2006 indicated his emphatic support for an electronic employment verification system. He told the Washington Post that one his three priorities was ” at the workplace, we need a simple, but mandatory electronic system that enables employers to verify the legal status of the people they hire.”Although he stated in 2006 “Understandably, employers cannot always detect forged documents”, he now vigorously supports severe penalties for employers of undocumented workers. What he did not acknowledge is that often the employers of low skilled Hispanics are often other Hispanics in small business who will be the target of his enforcement plan.  In several statements Obama seems to indicate that he favors that Hispanics should have with them identification at all times which is disturbing.

A recent landmark study done by the University of Houston researchers, Kugler and Yuksel, showed that immigrant Hispanics and native born Hispanics do not compete with each other but rather exist in a symbiotic relationship that benefits both groups. In fact this symbiotic relationship may in part be responsible for the robust economies that are occurring in many areas of the country where there is a mix of native Hispanics and immigrant Hispanics.  This is an important economic reality that seems to have been missed by many in the political world.

One of the main consequences of an Obama Presidency will no doubt be the passage of the Employment Free Choice Act. In summary, this would allow for the unionization of any workplace by employees simply collecting the signatures of a simple majority of workers without employer input, secret ballot, or requirement to be done at the workplace.  One of the most liberal Presidential candidates in history, George McGovern, has come out against the Act saying that the Democratic party “cannot be a party that strips working Americans of the right to a secret-ballot election.” Although it has been well established that Hispanic workers usually make a higher wage in a union job than a non-union job what effect will this have on the robust economies of the Southwest is yet unclear?

The history of Hispanics and organized labor is not all milk and honey.  Just this year, a settlement was finally reached in New York City where a Steel Workers Union finally admitted to long standing discrimination against blacks and Hispanics. Although you would think that discrimination against Hispanics by a union would be easy to prove, unfortunately quite the opposite is the rule of law. A controversial case occurred in Houston Texas in 1993 where Hispanics claimed they were discriminated against by a union and had the statistics to prove it, however, the judge ruled against expert testimony in what should have been a prima facie case.

What will be the effect of the Employment Free Choice Act on this symbiotic Hispanic relationship? The core of Obama’s support is in the “Rust belt” which is an area of the country that harbors the most discrimination of Hispanics. Obama has promised to them that undocumented Hispanics will be “returned to their countries before they can get in line”.  Although the League of United Latin American Citizens and others have stated that undocumented Hispanic workers are not the cause of America’s economic woes and in fact have had positive influences on the American economy, Mr. Obama has frequently represented to his “Rust Belt” followers that illegal immigration is an economic issue.

Much of the Southwest economy is based upon trade with America’s number one buyer of exports, Mexico. Many small and medium sized businesses owned by native born and immigrant Hispanics employ thousands of workers in this trade exchange. Mr. Obama’s opposition to free trade and his blatant blaming of trade with Latin America as a leading cause of economic downturns in the United States has caused many local Chambers of Commerce (whose members are mostly Hispanic) along the border to have great concern about the effect of an Obama Presidency. It is here that the greatest difference exists between local and national elected Hispanic officials and Mr. Obama.

A recent survey by the National Hispanic Professional Organization membership nationwide suggested that the election is split evenly between Obama and McCain. This group was more educated and successful economically than the public as a whole. This confirms that among Hispanics there are subgroups which may may favor McCain over Obama.  At the same time it is notable that the Obama campaign really made no effort to campaign in Texas even in the predominantly Hispanic southern area which has an average income of just $ 27,700 per year although it has a robust economy of trade with Mexico.

There can be no doubt that the Republican party lost the trust of many Hispanics with the false inuendo of the effects of Hispanic immigration on America. A recent Pew Hispanic Center study showed that perhaps 50% of all Hispanics are concerned about their status in the United States.  However, Hispanics need to understand that many of the undercurrents of discontent in America which are aimed at them will remain even with an Obama victory.  A new Democratic President and Democratic Congress who feel they owe their victory to the “Rust Belt” may result in significant changes which could adversely affect key features of Hispanic success in the Southwest.

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