Will Obama Be America’s First Blue Dog President?
Although many young people today think of the Democratic party as a bastion of progressive values, the recent victory of Barack Obama, many would argue could not have happened without the support and influence of the fastest growing segment of the Democratic party called the “Blue-Dog Democrats“. Since the 1920’s there has always been a wing of the Democratic party that was socially and fiscally conservative. At various times in history it has had names such as the Yellow Dogs and Boll Weevils. The current version was born in 1994 when conservative democrats agreed to support fiscal conservatism, gun rights, and usually pro-life stances but to only become vocal as a party member on fiscally conservative issues. Currently there are 48 official members of the Blue Dog coalition in the House of Representatives.
Obama’s strong stance on national defense, budget accountability, protection of gun rights, vocalization on religion, and rightward leaning ideas on family values are no doubt produced out of respect for the growing political power of the Blue Dogs. The Blue Dogs are challenging Republican strongholds in the South, Southeast, and Western United States. It can be argued that having Blue Dogs in the Democratic party actually is responsible for pushing Republicans to the right of centrist policies favored by American voters.
Blue Dogs are not without their critics within the progressive advocacy. Liberal leaning Salon.com in July of 2008 suggested that it was time to push the Blue Dogs out of Congress because they were too helpful to the Republicans. It was not the Republicans but the Blue Dogs who put the stop to the big three Detroit manufacturers receiving a bailout when Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler executives jetted into Washington, D.C. on private jets begging for money.
Opinion polls show the public in general is very skeptical and unhappy with the amount of money being given away in the bailouts and this is producing a major foundation for the future growth of the Blue Dogs power. Already Obama is clearly beginning to side with them in delaying a rapid exit from Iraq, promoting more troops in Afghanistan, and in demanding accountability from the big three automakers before they receive any assistance. Obama reneged on his promise to push for changes in counter terrorism procedures such as wiretaps on the advice of the Blue Dogs. Obama has ignored the recent controversy about gay marriage in California because he does not want to waste political capital or anger the Blue Dogs whose support he desperately needs to pass his ambitious jobs and stimulus plans. Many on the left today are unhappy that many of his economic advisers were not more “to the left”.
For conservatives, the presence of the Blue Dogs gives them an option to vote for either party but for Republicans they find that someone has stolen their thunder. Obama knows that somewhere between 30 and 40% of the voting public considers themselves to be conservative. The biggest challenge for the Republican party in the future will be how to differentiate themselves from the Blue Dogs. We can expect to see more and more Blue Dogs running in elections challenging not only Republicans but also more progressive Democrats as well. For the moment, Obama has a political halo bestowed upon him by the bloggers and voices of the left but already a few rumblings have started, yet, he seems to be taking the advice of Zell Miller’s best selling 2003 book, A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat, to heart.
Blue Dog Democrats are also actively developing a new constituency, Hispanics. They now count not only the Chairman of the Hispanic Caucus, Joe Baca, (CA-43) but also are rapidly spreading to New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas in state and local elections challenging both Republicans and progressive Democrats. Pro-life, pro-military, gun rights, securing of the borders, protection of American jobs, fighting illegal drugs, and emphasis on Christian values are now being touted by those such as Jon Garrido, a Phoenix city councilman, who maintains special websites for Blue Dog Democrats recruiting of Hispanics. Many border Hispanic Democratic Congressmen who are not officially listed as members of the Blue Dog Coalition almost always vote in tandem with the Blue Dog Democrats with the exception of immigration.
The story of American politics is that coalitions and alignments are never stagnant but always in motion. The political story for the elections coming in 2010 may not be whether Republicans make a comeback but rather how much stronger will the Blue Dogs become? The continued courting of America’s Hispanic voters into the Blue Dog coalition will likely be successful into 2010. Through out the United States we will see Blue Dog Democratic candidates challenging liberals. Who will Obama endorse?
Today Barack Obama announced that he is going to have cut major government programs and that all American’s will be asked to make sacrifices. This was not the influence of Barney Frank or Nancy Pelosi but the echo of the Blue Dogs. Obama knows that it was not the grass roots of the Democratic Party which elected him, not the left wing bloggers of the Daily KOS, but instead was independent voters like Hispanics, college educated white voters, and middle class workers who are not incoincidentally also the group so moved to the Blue Dogs. As he spends billions of taxpayer dollars to try to save the economy, Obama knows these Blue Dogs will make or break his path to re-election in 2012. He is already cutting links to liberals rapidly in his economic appointments and budget director appointments.
Republicans need to understand that they will not be facing a left leaning liberal in the next election. They may have to come up with a strategy to fight an incumbent Blue Dog President.
Tony Magaña grew up in McAllen Texas, attended Texas A&M University, holds a doctorate from Harvard University. The co-founder of Contempo Magazine has participated in Valley business for over 20 years.He is a member of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists.
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