House Democrats Health Plan Analysis by CBO Confirms Worst Fears
Wednesday, July 15th, 2009By Dr. Tony Magana

The Democratic House reform bill, The Affordable Health Choice Act, brings with it high income surtaxes, $10 trillion deficit, employee and employee mandates in the setting of a complex bureaucracy which will clearly handicap private insurance options as reported by a just released analysis of the Congressional Budget Office.
Currently there are three major working groups in the Congress formulating health care reform at the Committee level. The working draft of the version coming from the House of Representatives has begun to take shape this week. Key components include strong behests for employers to provide insurance and individuals to accept insurance with heavy penalties for failing to enroll.
Partial financing of the new health plan would be paid for by a progressive tax on wealthier Americans consisting of a surtax ranging from 1 percent to 5.4% which will raise the effective top tax rate to 45 percent if current rates remain. All employers except those with just a few employees not offering health care coverage will pay a penalty of 8% of the worker’s salary. To be exempt an employer would have to have an annual payroll of less than $250,000 per year. Employees who choose not to accept insurance from an employer will have to pay a sliding scale percentage of their gross income up to 2.5 percent to equal the cost of an average health care premium. Subsidies would be created for those between 133 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level beginning in 2013.
The surtax is not fixed or permanently capped. If savings goals are not reached by 2012 then the surtax will be doubled. The Heritage Foundation reports that President Obama intends to raise the top two marginal tax rates to 47% which could mean that by 2012 the average top tax rate could exceed 52 percent giving the United States a higher personal tax rate than all but three countries (Denmark is the highest at 60 percent).
Private insurance companies must proffer reasonable premiums to those with pre-existing conditions. No exceptions, denials, or exclusions of coverage will be allowed. The House version includes provisions for a government health plan which will compete with private insurance. Reimbursement to providers from the public plan will be set at Medicare plus five percent.
Even with the high taxes imposed the proposal being put forward by the House Democrats will still result in staggering deficits. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) performed an evaluation of the Affordable Health Choice Act which has just be released in a letter to Congressman Rangel.
The legislation as it is currently written will “increase the federal budget deficit by $1,042 billion over the 2010-2019 period”. Enacting the proposed reform could reduce the number of uninsured non-elderly from to about 16 million says the CBO. Those below the 133 percent of the federal poverty level would be enrolled in Medicaid for whom which the government would pay 100% of their medical expenses.
The CBO estimates the government’s public plan would be about “ten percent cheaper than a typical private plan” which will be offered in exchanges of private insurance companies. They noted there was “an usually high degree of uncertainty” as to how many people will actually be enrolled in the public plan. However, the CBO report confirms that the many more people will be enrolled in government run health care programs either Medicaid or the new public plan then are currently. A significant price difference in premiums of ten percent between private plans and the public plan will, as many critics have noted, create a great disincentive to join private plans.
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The CBO analysis hints that since physicians will not be required to take the public health plan, even if they participate in Medicare, there might be some increased physician choice incentives with the private versus the public plan but, then again they estimate that perhaps up to one third of those receiving federal subsidies to buy insurance will likely chose the public option. From an economic perspective it seems more than probable that most physicians will not be able to opt out of a public plan that covers such a large percentage of the population.
In the state of current economic recession, employers themselves will have no incentive to seek anything other than the public health plan. Albeit there is a tax credit for small employers, the overall increase in tax rates, the likely taxation of private health care plans, and the certainty that the public plan will be cheaper essentially will herald the death of private insurance.
Thanks for reading Contempo Magazine blog which discusses issues for McAllen, the Rio Grande Valley, and America from a conservative Hispanic point of view. Tony Magaña grew up in McAllen Texas, attended Texas A&M University, served as an officer in Army Reserve, and holds a doctorate from Harvard University. The co-founder of Contempo Magazine has participated in Valley business for over 20 years. He is a member of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists and also writes for the American Daily Review. Follow him on twitter http://twitter.com/contempomagazin
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Copyright 2009 Dr. Tony Magana
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