Can Hutchison or Perry Win Hispanic Support in the Texas Governor Race?
By Dr. Tony Magana
Close to 30% of eligible voters in Texas will be Hispanic by the time of the next election. A Republican candidate who can match George Bush’s ability to garner significant Hispanic support in his gubernatorial and Presidential elections could find a winning strategy. But will this be possible for Hutchison or Perry?
The upcoming gubernatorial race in Texas could prove to be a test for how Republican candidates can develop a successful strategy to gain the Hispanic vote. The most successful campaigner in Texas history, Governor Rick Perry is facing a serious challenge from the popular Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. On the surface this appears to be a race between a socially and fiscally conservative Republican incumbent versus a moderate Republican but in reality is a much more complex situation with numerous possible outcomes.
The southwestern states including Texas have a eclectic mix of voting groups affecting elections including fast growing Hispanic populations, conservative Republicans who were once Democrats, and transplanted northerners which consist of young professionals and retirees. The Democratic party has been making progress in gaining seats in the Texas legislature and also making the races closer in state wide elections. Apart from gerrymandered urban districts in state and local elections, the typical Texas Democrat tends to be a centrist or ‘blue dog” more often than a traditional East coast progressive. But despite their gains, the Texas Democratic party like the Republicans still have problems with minority voters.
There remains considerable controversy about what happened in the 2002 Texas gubernatorial race where a Mexican-American candidate from South Texas, Tony Sanchez, who outspent Perry 2 to 1, did so poorly in the election as did Houston area legislator, Rick Noriega, against incumbent John Cornyn in the 2008 Senate race. Both elections recorded a high percentage of Hispanic voters voting for the Hispanic candidates but this occurred in the setting of an overall very low voter turn out by Hispanic voters. The final election tally showed the Democratic candidates did much worse than pre-election polling had predicted.
The Texas Democratic party remains immersed in a lawsuit over the Presidential primary process. The 2008 primary was a strange concoction were convention attendees and their votes for the candidates were determined by a two separate means. Instead of relying upon just the popular vote, for the first time, caucuses were held in the late evening which also awarded delegates to the convention but on a formula based upon the previous election’s turnout. Many Hispanic supporters of Hillary Clinton maintain that they were never told about these caucuses. Although Clinton won the popular vote in the Texas primary, Obama ultimately got the majority of delegates from Texas because his supporters dominated the late night caucuses. In addition, areas like South Texas which had low voter turnouts in the previous elections were penalized, some say unfairly, while other areas like Houston’s African American districts received extra delegates because the previous election featured an African American, Ron Kirk, in a statewide election.
Albeit, this time it appears there will no major Hispanic or minority candidate from either the Democrats or the Republicans in the upcoming primaries for governor. A few political Texas insiders from the Democratic party say that popular former Dallas mayor and African American, Ron Kirk, was given the position of U.S. Trade Representative, to clear the way for a white Democrat to run for governor and the Senate. Although pundits would argue that Hispanics will overwhelmingly vote in the Democratic primary, if a Republican candidate in this assuredly close race makes an effort to court the Hispanic vote this could have significant consequences not only for the Republican primary but also whether the Republicans can win the general election.
No doubt feeling the pressure from the conservative base, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, joined Senator John Cornyn in voting no to the nomination of Judge Sonya Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. Governor Rick Perry has a close relationship with radio commentator, Rush Limbaugh, and even named Limbaugh an “honorary Texan” so most Hispanics will have assumed had Perry had a vote his would have been similar to Hutchison.
Anyway you look at it, for the Republicans in Texas to get any significant Hispanic support they have to understand they first have to dig themselves out of hole. Some analysts have pointed to the fact that Republican Senators from Texas and Arizona who voted against Sotomayor, despite having large Hispanic populations, might have insight into those populations as being more conservative then conventionally supposed. Abortion, gun rights, and pro-faith issues which are potentially strong in the Hispanic community of the Southwest may mitigate the long term effect of the negative Sotomayor vote somewhat goes the unproven theory.
Conversely, reflection on the poor showing of John McCain in the Presidential election of 2008 despite his being a strong advocate of immigration reform by Hispanic voters from the Southwest had little to do with his own personal feelings, in my opinion, but was in fact a protest vote against the Republican party as a whole for tolerating the likes of Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo with their shameful anti-Hispanic rhetoric.
For either Hutchison or Perry to capture a significant portion of the Hispanic vote they will have to switch from a passive mode of appeal where Hispanics are assumed to be in the general population of conservatives to an active one that addresses issues relative to the Hispanic community where a conservative answer will have appeal. They will need to find an issue which could mobilize a higher turnout for their own Hispanics supporters and just as important also not risk triggering anti-Republican turnout.
Following the Presidential election, the Pew Hispanic Research Center did a survey of what issues were relative to Hispanics. The major issue was not immigration (only 31 percent reported this) but was first, the economy at 57 percent, followed by education at 51 percent. Immigration as a primary issue of political discussion will not likely cause a major increase in turnout by Hispanics but can be a dangerous issue in the negative. Anti-immigration rhetoric that is perceived as veiled racism is a Republican mistake that cannot be repeated. Currently both political parties have taken an attitude to “let sleeping dogs lay”.
Although the vast majority of Hispanics are pro-life, up to now community or political activism to the greater community on this issue has been mute. In recent times, for example, most Hispanic voters have not applied a pro-life litmus test to candidates but that could change. The stepping up of the Catholic Church in denouncing public support of abortion and the growing presence of Hispanic evangelical protestants could spell trouble for the pro-life advocate, Kay Bailey Hutchison. Governor Perry is in a favorable position to garner at least the evangelical Christian vote in both the primary and general election.
One of the fastest growing segments of the population in Texas is the Hispanic small business owner. Governor Perry was the author of the state franchise tax which is really an income tax on small business. Although many Hispanic small businesses are exempt because they have revenues of less than $1 million, this is already become a major focus of attack of the Hutchison campaign on the record of the incumbent. On the other hand, Kay Bailey Hutchison, voted for the stimulus bill which a majority of Americans and even more so of Texans see as being a waste of taxpayer dollars.
Both Governor Perry and Senator Hutchison need to pay more attention to South Texas then they have in the past. Republican Senator John Cornyn has spent considerable time developing close relationships with local elected Democratic mayors and legislators from South Texas. Even when he has disagreed with local politicians on issues like the construction of the border wall which was going to be an unstoppable federal mandate, he went out of his way to get funding for levee repair and new international bridge construction. His activism should serve as model for the two candidates. Hutchison has shown a compassionate side to the poor in South Texas in the past but has never engaged the Rio Grande Valley to the same extent as Cornyn. Governor Perry has in the past made statements about conditions or situations about the border without consulting local leaders. This is a faux pas that must end.
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In my opinion, the most important issue that the Republicans should address if they wish to garner Hispanic support is education. Texas remains one of worst states with a fifty percent dropout rate of Hispanics who enter high school and one of the lowest rates of Hispanics under the age of 25 who attend college.
Governor Perry has been an advocate for school choice and voucher programs in the past but not consistently. At times he has called for vouchers and distribution of state wide resources to create a statewide equitable school system but then when faced with budget problems hastily retreated from those positions. The incumbent has not been a major player in the potential development of a Tier 1 university or medical school in the Rio Grande Valley which is one of the few major metropolitan areas in the country with a population well over 1 million without these facilities.
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has been a strong advocate for improving school curriculum in math and science. She supported a temporary voucher program for students displaced by Hurricane Katrina to attend private schools and also vouchers for students living in Washington DC. Her record on education has been one that favors school prayer, vouchers, and education savings accounts but has consistently voted against more federal subsidies or mandates to local schools.
If either Rick Perry or Kay Bailey Hutchison wants to win the support of Texas Hispanic voters, they will need to develop a clear and concise education plan to change the status quo for Hispanic education. This commitment will need to be more then just a minor side issue, but must reflect a political will to make responsible but significant financial investments and system changes to convert a failed education system to one that makes Texas a leader in education rather then a disgrace. All Texas families need to be given choices on which schools their children will attend, school systems must involve communities and families more and be held more accountable. Finally, in situations where private schools or religious institutions or other public school districts can provide better learning opportunities at lower cost per student then a failed public school then students must given vouchers to attend these schools just as they do in Washington DC.
Thanks for reading Contempo Magazine blog which discusses issues for McAllen, the Rio Grande Valley, and America from a conservative Hispanic point of view. Tony Magaña grew up in McAllen Texas, attended Texas A&M University, served as an officer in Army Reserve, and holds a doctorate from Harvard University. The co-founder of Contempo Magazine has participated in Valley business for over 20 years. He is a member of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists and also writes for the American Daily Review. Follow him on twitter http://twitter.com/contempomagazin
Copyright 2009, Dr. Tony Magana. Some rights reserved.
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